:Product: 0403RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Apr 03 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 093 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 867 (S16E03) produced
two C1 flares; a C1.8 at 03/1203 UTC and a C1.4 at 03/1625 UTC.
Region 867 continues to increase in area and may be developing a
delta in its trailing spots. Region 865 (S11W21), a beta gamma delta
sunspot group, continues to exhibit growth and development,
particularly in the umbral coverage of the trailing spots.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated M-class flares are possible from Region 865.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 04 April. On 05 and 06 April,
quiet to unsettled conditions are expected with active periods
possible due to a coronal hole high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Apr 100
Predicted   04 Apr-06 Apr  100/100/100
90 Day Mean        03 Apr 079
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr  001/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr  003/008-008/012-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05