:Product: 0404RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Apr 04 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 094 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 865 (S11W35) produced a
C4 flare at 03/2126 UTC. The penumbral area of the two major leading
spots has merged in this region. The trailing spots appear to be in
decay. This region is classified as a beta gamma magnetic group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. An isolated M-class flare is possible from Region 865.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
possible on 05 and 06 April due to a coronal hole high speed stream.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 07 April.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
Class M    20/25/25
Class X    01/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Apr 100
Predicted   05 Apr-07 Apr  100/100/100
90 Day Mean        04 Apr 079
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr  008/012-008/012-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01