:Product: 0405RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Apr 05 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 095 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 867 (S16W26) produced
two C-class flares; a C2.6 at 05/1307 UTC and a C8.1 at 05/1521 UTC.
New region 868 (S07W06) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. An isolated M-class flare is possible from Regions 865
or 867.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions. Minor
storm periods were observed from 05/0900 to 1200 UTC and 05/1200 to
1500 UTC. Heightened activity was due to sustained periods of
southward Bz coupled with an increase in the total magnetic field.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with active periods possible on 06
April. On 07 and 08 April, quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Apr 099
Predicted   06 Apr-08 Apr  100/100/100
90 Day Mean        05 Apr 079
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr  004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr  016/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  010/012-008/010-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01