:Product: 0406RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Apr 07 1509 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 096 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels.  Region
865 (S11W60) produced two M-class flares today, an impulsive M1
event occurring at 06/0533Z and a second impulsive M1 event
occurring at 06/2042Z.  The remainder of the observed flare activity
recorded during the period were B-class events.  Region 865
underwent slight decay in sunspot area (530 millionths).  This
region continues to depict a beta-gamma magnetic structure.  Region
869 (S12E24) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Region 865 has the potential for the
production of further impulsive M-class flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels.  A
sustained period of southward Bz was followed by active conditions
between 06/0900-1200Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels on 07 and 08
April.  Isolated active to minor storm conditions are expected on
09 April due to a recurrent transequatorial coronal hole high
speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Apr 099
Predicted   07 Apr-09 Apr  100/100/095
90 Day Mean        06 Apr 079
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr  018/029
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr  008/010-005/008-012/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/25
Minor storm           05/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/15/40
Minor storm           05/05/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/15