:Product: 0407RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Apr 07 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 097 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 867 (S15W56) produced
an impulsive C9 flare at 07/0803Z.  Region 865 (S11W58) is in decay
and now has 7 spots with a total area of 230 millionths.  Region 869
(S12E08) has developed into a Dso class spot group.  Region 866
(S05W53) has shown little change since yesterday.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
There is a slight chance for M-class activity from Region 865.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on 08 April.  On 09 and 10 April, unsettled to
active conditions with a chance for isolated minor storm periods are
expected due to a high speed stream from a transequatorial coronal
hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
Class M    15/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Apr 095
Predicted   08 Apr-10 Apr  095/090/085
90 Day Mean        07 Apr 080
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr  006/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr  002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr  005/008-012/020-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/20
Minor storm           01/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/40/30
Minor storm           05/25/10
Major-severe storm    01/15/05