:Product: 0410RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Apr 10 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Newly numbered Region 870
(S08E21) produced a B8 flare at 10/1934Z. New Region 871 (S08E52)
was also numbered today. A CME observed off the west limb at
09/2230Z is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
high speed solar wind stream that began late on 08 April remains in
effect. Solar wind speed is at 600 km/s, but is in decline. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous was at high
levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods on
11 April.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Apr 089
Predicted   11 Apr-13 Apr  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        10 Apr 080
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr  027/039
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr  015/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr  010/020-005/010-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01