:Product: 0411RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Apr 11 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to low levels.  Region 871
(S08E39) produced the largest flare during the period, a C2/1n event
occurring at 11/1839Z.  Region 870 (S08E09) produced two C1 flares
today, the first occurring at 11/0200Z and the second at 11/0439Z. 
Regions 872 (S09E74) and 873 (S04E48) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 12 and 13 April. 
Isolated minor to severe storm conditions are possible on 14 April
due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Apr 090
Predicted   12 Apr-14 Apr  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        11 Apr 080
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr  011/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr  005/008-005/010-015/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/35
Minor storm           01/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/50
Minor storm           05/05/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/15