:Product: 0412RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Apr 12 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 873 (S04E35) has
developed in complexity and is now a Dai class spot group.  All
other regions have remained quiescent.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 13 April.  Unsettled to active
conditions with possible periods of minor storming are expected on
14 April, increasing to mostly active with possible minor to major
storming on 15 April due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Apr 081
Predicted   13 Apr-15 Apr  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        12 Apr 080
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Apr  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr  005/010-015/025-020/040
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/40
Minor storm           01/15/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/35/20
Minor storm           05/30/40
Major-severe storm    01/15/20