:Product: 0413RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Apr 13 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Only a few B-class flares
occurred. All sunspot regions were relatively small and simple.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. A small C-class flare is possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. Solar wind
observations suggest the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream
as the likely cause of the activity.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active with the possibility of
isolated storm conditions as the high-speed stream induced activity
continues.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Apr 080
Predicted   14 Apr-16 Apr  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        13 Apr 080
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr  015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr  020/030-015/040-010/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10