:Product: 0414RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Apr 14 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity remained very low.  No significant
flares occurred during the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels.  An
interval of major to severe storm conditions was observed at the
Boulder magnetometer between 14/0600Z and 1200Z.  The interplanetary
magnetic field strengthened, and the Z-component rotated smoothly
from 13/1500Z through 14/1200Z from 17 nT through a maximum negative
value of -15 nT.  Solar wind speeds ranged from approximately 480
km/s to 570 km/s.  The unusual solar wind conditions appear to be
consistent with a corotating interaction region that may have been
complicated by the presence of transient flow.  The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active.  Isolated periods of minor to
major storm conditions are possible on 15-16 April due to a coronal
hole high speed stream.  Predominantly unsettled conditions will
return on 17 April.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Apr 079
Predicted   15 Apr-17 Apr  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        14 Apr 080
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr  009/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr  032/040
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr  025/030-020/025-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/25
Minor storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/35/30
Minor storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    15/10/10