:Product: 0415RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Apr 15 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 873 (S03W05)
produced a B1 flare at 15/1144Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels. 
An interval of minor storm conditions was observed at the Boulder
magnetometer between 15/0600Z and 15/0900Z.  The high speed solar
wind stream remains in effect.  Solar wind speed peaked at around
730 km/s at approximately 15/1415Z, but has since been in decline. 
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active, with isolated periods of minor
storm conditions, through 16 April.  Predominantly unsettled
conditions are expected on 17 April.  Quiet to unsettled levels will
return on 18 April.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Apr 078
Predicted   16 Apr-18 Apr  080/075/075
90 Day Mean        15 Apr 080
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr  032/058
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr  020/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr  015/025-010/015-008/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/15
Minor storm           25/20/10
Major-severe storm    10/10/05