:Product: 0420RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Apr 20 2206 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 110 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Apr 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  Region 871
(S06W79) produced a couple B-class flares during the period.  Region
874 (S01W11) continues to exhibit steady growth in spot area and
magnetic complexity.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.  Region 874 has a slight chance of producing
an isolated C-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  A weak recurrent
coronal hole may lead to isolated active periods on 23 April.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Apr-23 Apr
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Apr 079
Predicted   21 Apr-23 Apr  080/080/085
90 Day Mean        20 Apr 078
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Apr  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Apr  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Apr-23 Apr  005/008-005/008-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Apr-23 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05