:Product: 0422RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Apr 22 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. A C2 x-ray flare which reached
maximum at 1639UTC was the largest event of the day. B-class flares
were more numerous and all activity was seen to be centered on
active regions just rotating onto the disk in the southern
hemisphere. The sole spot group, Region 874 (S02W39), was quiet as
it continued to decay.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Expect isolated C-class flares during the next three
days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was moderately disturbed early in the period,
as conditions ranged from active to brief major storming at high
latitudes. This activity was due to strong Alfven waves in the solar
wind  that caused periods of southward  IMF to reach -15 nT at
times. The solar wind returned to more normal conditions during the
last 12 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled during the interval. Brief active
conditions may occur in the near term as the solar wind speed,
though decreasing, is still above 500 km/s.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Apr 082
Predicted   23 Apr-25 Apr  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        22 Apr 078
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  010/010-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01