:Product: 0430RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Apr 30 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  New Region 878 (N14E60)
produced a C5/sf at 30/0157Z.  A Tenflare (110 sfu) and a Type II
radio sweep, with an estimated shock speed of 657 Km/sec, were
associated with this flare.  An associated CME was observed off the
east limb on LASCO imagery at 30/0142Z.  Region 876 (S11E08) 
produced a C1/sf flare at 30/0932Z.  A Type II radio sweep, with an
estimated shock speed of 822 Km/sec, was associated with this flare.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
M-class flare activity remains possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on 1 May.  Predominantly unsettled conditions
will occur on 2 May.  Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 3 May.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 May-03 May
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Apr 100
Predicted   01 May-03 May  105/105/105
90 Day Mean        30 Apr 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May  005/007-012/015-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/10
Minor storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor storm           05/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01