:Product: 0501RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 May 01 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 875 (S11W33) produced a
long-duration C1/sf flare at 01/1535Z.  Region 876 (S15W07) produced
a B9/sf flare at 01/0157Z.  A Type II radio sweep, with an estimated
shock speed of 436 Km/sec was associated with this flare.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled.  Intervals of active
conditions are possible.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 May-04 May
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 May 093
Predicted   02 May-04 May  095/095/095
90 Day Mean        01 May 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr  000/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May  012/015-015/020-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May-04 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/15
Minor storm           10/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/10/05