:Product: 0504RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 May 04 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  An active region on the east
limb (S10E90) produced a C1 flare at 04/1745 UTC.  A very faint
partial halo CME was observed by LASCO starting at approximately
04/0131 UTC associated with a filament eruption (S33W07).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active, with a single minor storm
period at high latitudes from 1200 - 1500 UTC following a period of
sustained southward Bz.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active for the next three days
(05 - 07 May) with a chance for minor to major storm periods on 06
May due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream and possible
effects from today's partial halo CME.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 May-07 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 May 092
Predicted   05 May-07 May  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        04 May 082
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May  007/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May  015/020-025/030-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/40/25
Minor storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           20/30/20
Major-severe storm    10/15/10