:Product: 0505RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 May 05 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to very low levels.  Regions
875 (S13W85) and 880 (S08E50) were limited to minor B-class flare
activity.  Region 881 (S12E75) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.  The
elevated conditions were due to a co-rotating interaction region.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels, possibly
isolated severe storm conditions on 06 May due to a recurrent high
speed coronal hole stream.  Predominantly unsettled to active
conditions are expected on 07 and 08 May due to continued coronal
hole effects.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 May-08 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 May 087
Predicted   06 May-08 May  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        05 May 082
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May  010/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May  015/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May  025/030-015/020-012/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/35/30
Minor storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/30/30
Minor storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/10/10