:Product: 0506RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 May 06 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at very low levels.  Activity
was limited to minor B-class flares.  Region 881 (S12E68) has fully
rotated onto the visible disk and is a simply structured beta
complex.  Region 882 (S12W19) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very to low levels.  There is a chance that Regions 881 and 882
could produce an isolated C-class flare,
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.  The
elevated conditions are due a favorably positioned recurrent coronal
hole which became geoeffective near 06/1530Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. 
Isolated minor storm conditions are possible on 07 and 08 May due to
coronal hole high speed stream effects.  A return to quiet to
unsettled condition are expected on 09 May as the coronal hole
wanes.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 May-09 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 May 087
Predicted   07 May-09 May  085/085/080
90 Day Mean        06 May 082
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May  008/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May  016/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May  020/030-012/020-005/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/15
Minor storm           20/15/01
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/40/25
Minor storm           30/20/15
Major-severe storm    15/10/05