:Product: 0507RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 May 07 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. There was no activity of
note in the five sunspot groups on the visible disk. All these
active regions are small with simple magnetic configurations. New
Region 883 (S04E56) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
disturbed conditions were associated with a high speed coronal hole
stream. Solar wind speed gradually increased to over 600 km/s
following the onset of the high speed stream midday on 06 May.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. Isolated active periods are possible
on 08 May due to a coronal hole high speed stream. Expect quiet to
unsettled conditions on 09 and 10 May.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 May-10 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 May 086
Predicted   08 May-10 May  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        07 May 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May  014/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May  018/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May  012/020-005/012-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor storm           15/01/01
Major-severe storm    15/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           20/10/10
Major-severe storm    10/01/01