:Product: 0508RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 May 08 2206 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 882
(S12W45) continues in a growth phase, and increased in both area and
magnetic complexity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a small chance for a C-class flare in Region 882.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods. Solar wind speed remains elevated, ranging from 500 - 550
km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to major storming. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on 09 May. A large recurrent coronal hole is
expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 10 May. Active
periods are expected on 10 May, with minor to major storm periods
possible on 11 May.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 May-11 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 May 085
Predicted   09 May-11 May  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        08 May 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May  017/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May  005/008-008/012-020/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/40
Minor storm           01/05/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/30/50
Minor storm           05/10/30
Major-severe storm    01/05/20