:Product: 0509RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 May 09 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 882
(S12W58), the largest and most magnetically complex sunspot group on
the visible disk, exhibited no new growth and no activity of note
this period. A small B-class flare was observed in Region 883
(S04E26).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare
from Region 882.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was high again this period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to major storm levels. Mostly quiet to
unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are expected on 10
May as a large, recurrent coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective
position. Active to minor storm periods are likely on 11 and 12 May,
and isolated major storm periods are possible.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 May-12 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 May 083
Predicted   10 May-12 May  085/085/080
90 Day Mean        09 May 082
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May  008/012-025/030-020/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/50/50
Minor storm           05/25/25
Major-severe storm    01/15/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/50/50
Minor storm           10/30/30
Major-severe storm    01/20/20