:Product: 0511RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 May 11 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 882 (S12W82) 
remains the most magnetically complex sunspot group on the visible
desk but has exhibited no growth or activity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active.  The large
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream has rotated into a
geoeffective position.  Consequently, the solar wind speed increased
to approximately 600 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels.  Expect
unsettled to active conditions with isolated minor storm periods on
12 May due to the coronal hole high speed stream.  Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on 13 and 14 May.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 May-14 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 May 076
Predicted   12 May-14 May  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        11 May 082
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 May  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May  018/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May  020/025-010/012-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May-14 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/25/15
Minor storm           25/10/05
Major-severe storm    15/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/25/20
Minor storm           30/15/10
Major-severe storm    20/10/05