:Product: 0512RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 May 12 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  Several minor
B-class flares were observed today.  Region 883 (S04W10) showed
minimal growth.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  The elevated
conditions were due to a high speed coronal hole stream.  At the
time of this writing solar wind speeds have steadily decreased to
approximately 550 km/sec.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 May 076
Predicted   13 May-15 May  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        12 May 082
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May  021/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May  018/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May  010/012-005/010-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01