:Product: 0513RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 May 13 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Regions 880 (S08W57) and
883 (S02W27) both decayed slightly.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  Solar wind speed is
still slightly elevated at approximately 600 km/s.  The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (14 - 16
May).
III.  Event Probabilities 14 May-16 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 May 074
Predicted   14 May-16 May  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        13 May 082
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May  010/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May  005/008-005/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01