:Product: 0515RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 May 15 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on 16 and 17 May. On 18 May, quiet to
active conditions are expected due to a coronal hole high speed
stream moving into geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 May-18 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 May 072
Predicted   16 May-18 May  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        15 May 082
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  005/005-005/008-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/30
Minor storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05