:Product: 0516RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 May 16 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 17 May. On 18 and 19 May,
geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled due to a
coronal hole high speed stream moving into geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 May-19 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 May 072
Predicted   17 May-19 May  070/070/075
90 Day Mean        16 May 082
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May  005/008-010/015-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May-19 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/30/25
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05