:Product: 0517RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 May 17 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with the possibility of isolated
minor storm periods due to effects from a coronal hole high speed
stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 May-20 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 May 072
Predicted   18 May-20 May  070/075/080
90 Day Mean        17 May 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 May  000/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 May  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May  010/010-010/020-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May-20 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/20
Minor storm           15/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/10/01