:Product: 0518RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 May 18 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Solar wind
speed at ACE showed an increase beginning around 18/0500 UTC as a
coronal hole high speed stream moved into geoeffective position.
Solar wind speed increased to around 600 km/s. An isolated minor
storm period occurred between 18/1500 and 18/1800 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with minor storm periods possible on
19 May due to continued coronal hole activity. On 20 and 21 May,
mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 May-21 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 May 073
Predicted   19 May-21 May  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        18 May 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 May  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 May  012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May  010/020-008/010-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May-21 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor storm           20/10/10
Major-severe storm    10/01/01