:Product: 0608RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Jun 08 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Activity consisted of
several B-class flares.  Region 892 (S06E15) is now classified as
beta gamma.  The region is about the same size as yesterday and does
not appear to be growing at this time.  Region 893 (S02E37) is
growing slowly but appears to be stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with a period of minor
storming between 08/0300Z and 08/0900Z due to a coronal hole high
speed stream.  The solar wind velocity remains elevated at 550 - 650
km/s.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field is forecast
to be unsettled to active for the next 12 - 24 hours (09/1200Z -
09/2400Z) due to persistence of the high speed stream.  Activity
levels are expected to decline to quiet to unsettled for the
remainder of the forecast interval (10 - 11 June).
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jun 080
Predicted   09 Jun-11 Jun  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        08 Jun 082
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun  018/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jun  022/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun  015/020-007/015-007/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/25
Minor storm           20/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/25/25
Minor storm           25/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05