:Product: 0614RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Jun 14 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  Region 892
(S07W70) produced low level B-class flares early in the period. 
Other numbered regions have been quiescent during the past 24 hours.
No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.  Solar wind speed
increased from 400 km/sec to a maximum of 550 km/sec late in the
period, this coinciding with an anticipated recurrent coronal hole. 
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  Isolated active
conditions may be possible on 15 June due to a favorably positioned
coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jun 075
Predicted   15 Jun-17 Jun  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        14 Jun 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun  010/012-005/010-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01