:Product: 0615RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Jun 15 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 892 (S06W85) produced
two C-class flares; a C2.6 at 15/0431 UTC and a C1.4 at 15/0823 UTC.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm conditions. Major
storm periods were observed between 15/0600 - 0900 UTC and 15/0900 -
1200 UTC. Activity was due to the effects from a recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
possible on 16 June. On 17 and 18 June, quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jun 076
Predicted   16 Jun-18 Jun  075/075/080
90 Day Mean        15 Jun 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun  020/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun  010/015-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01