:Product: 0618RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Jun 18 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Two CME's were observed on
LASCO imagery. The first was off the southwest limb at 18/0030 UTC
while the second was off the northeast limb at 18/0830 UTC. Both
CME's appeared to be backsided events.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. An isolated
active period was observed on Boulder magnetometer between 18/0600 -
0900 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jun 073
Predicted   19 Jun-21 Jun  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        18 Jun 082
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun  007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  005/008-003/005-003/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01