:Product: 0701RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Jul 01 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 898
(S06E26) produced occasional B-class flares including a B9.8 at
01/0726Z. Region 897 (N06W12) continues to decay.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels with a small chance for a C-class flare from
Region 898.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet with isolated unsettled periods.
Solar wind speed slowly declined, ending the period near 400 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels over the next
three days. Expect quiet conditions on 02 July. A recurrent high
speed coronal hole stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective
position on 03 July and produce occasional active to minor storm
periods on both 03 and 04 July.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jul 086
Predicted   02 Jul-04 Jul  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        01 Jul 078
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul  005/005-015/020-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/40/40
Minor storm           01/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/50/50
Minor storm           01/25/25
Major-severe storm    01/15/15