:Product: 0702RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Jul 02 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 898
(S06E14) still exhibits minor magnetic complexity, and produced a
B9.3 flare at 02/0832Z. Region 897 (N06W23) continues to decay.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a small chance of a C-class flare from
Region 898.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed has declined to
near 380 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. A recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into a
geoeffective position late on 03 July. Expect quiet to unsettled
conditions with isolated active periods on 03 July. Occasional
active to minor storm periods are expected on 04 and 05 July.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Jul 087
Predicted   03 Jul-05 Jul  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        02 Jul 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul  012/020-015/020-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/40
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/50/50
Minor storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    05/15/15