:Product: 0703RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Jul 03 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 898 (S07W01)
continues to produce occasional minor B-class flare activity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a small chance for a C-class flare from
Region 898.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. A high speed
coronal hole stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective
position in the next 24 hours. Expect occasional active to minor
storm periods on 04 and 05 July. Unsettled to active periods are
likely on 06 July.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jul 086
Predicted   04 Jul-06 Jul  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        03 Jul 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul  005/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul  015/020-015/020-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/50/40
Minor storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    15/15/05