:Product: 0704RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Jul 04 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 898 (S07W14) produced
two C-class events during the last 24 hours. The first was a C1 at
03/2304Z and the second was a C1 at 04/2029Z. Region 898 does not
appear to be growing and has relatively little magnetic complexity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (05-07 July).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet from the beginning of the period
through 04/1200Z. Conditions were active from 1200-1500Z and
unsettled from 1500-2100Z. The increase in geomagnetic activity was
due to the onset of a high speed coronal hole stream. Solar wind
velocity increased slowly during the past 24 hours and the onset of
wave activity was clearly indicated in the interplanetary magnetic
field measurements.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours (05 July)
as the coronal hole effects are expected to continue. Conditions
should subside to mostly unsettled for 06 July and to quiet to
unsettled for 07 July.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jul 088
Predicted   05 Jul-07 Jul  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        04 Jul 082
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul  012/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul  015/020-010/015-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor storm           25/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05