:Product: 0705RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Jul 05 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 898 (S08W28) produced
one C-class event, a C1 at 05/0858Z. Region 898 has grown slightly
but has remained unchanged in magnetic complexity. A new region, 899
(S05E69), rotated into view today. A slow, narrow CME was observed
in LASCO/C2 on the southwest limb, beginning at 04/2354Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (06-08 July).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels during
the past 24 hours.  Active to minor storm conditions prevailed from
04/2100Z to 05/0900Z.  Conditions have been quiet to unsettled since
then.  The enhanced activity is due to the presence of a high speed
coronal hole stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active during the next 24 hours (06
July) due to the continuing effects of the high speed coronal hole
stream.  As the coronal hole stream rotates past its geoeffective
location, geomagnetic activity should decline to quiet for the last
two days of the forecast period (July 07-08).  No effects are
expected from today's CME.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jul 085
Predicted   06 Jul-08 Jul  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        05 Jul 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul  011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul  018/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul  010/015-007/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/05