:Product: 0706RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Jul 06 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate with a single M-class flare
(M2/2F) occurring at 0836Z accompanied by type II and type IV radio
sweeps.  The estimated shock speed of the type II radio sweep was
565 km/sec.  The M2 was associated with a disappearing solar
filament (extent of 11 degrees) and a partial halo CME (plane of sky
speed of 824 km/sec) from the southwest limb.  Region 898 (S08W41)
features a large negative polarity leader spot with a fragment
splitting off to the southwest.  There is an incursion of positive
polarity flux penetrating the main spot.  Region 899 (S05E56) was
quiet and stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low,
but there is a chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an active interval
from 05/2100 - 06/0300Z.  The solar wind speed remains elevated due
to a coronal hole high speed stream but has steadily declined during
the past 24 hours.  An enhancement of greater than 10 MeV protons
began around 1030 UTC in response to the M2 flare and CME.  The
maximum flux reached approximately 2 PFU.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for July 07 - 08.  An increase to
active, with a chance for periods of minor storm levels may occur
sometime July 09 due to the arrival of the flank of today's CME.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jul 085
Predicted   07 Jul-09 Jul  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        06 Jul 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul  018/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul  012/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul  007/008-007/010-020/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/35
Minor storm           05/05/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/20
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/35
Minor storm           05/15/30
Major-severe storm    01/10/25