:Product: 0707RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Jul 07 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low with two C-class flares
from Region 898 (S06W55).  Region 899 (S05E40) was quiet and stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low,
although there is a slight chance of an isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  The solar wind speed remains
elevated due to a coronal hole high speed stream but has steadily
declined during the past 24 hours.   Enhancement of 10 MeV protons
continues but has been steadily declining.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for July  8, then active on July 9 with a
chance for minor storm periods due to the arrival of the flank of
the July  6 CME.  Unsettled to active conditions due to persistence
are expected for July 10.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jul 080
Predicted   08 Jul-10 Jul  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        07 Jul 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul  007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul  007/010-020/025-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/30
Minor storm           05/25/15
Major-severe storm    01/20/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/35/25
Minor storm           15/30/15
Major-severe storm    10/25/05