:Product: 0708RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Jul 08 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 898 (S06W69) produced a
C2.3 flare at 07/2147 UTC. This region appears to be in decay;
however, it still maintains a beta gamma delta magnetic
configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to reach
low levels with a chance for an isolated M-flare from Region 898.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled until midday on 09 July. Active to
major storm periods are possible due to a glancing blow from the 06
July CME. On 10 July, conditions are expected to calm to unsettled
to active levels.  On 11 July, quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
Class M    15/15/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jul 077
Predicted   09 Jul-11 Jul  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        08 Jul 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul  020/030-012/015-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor storm           25/15/10
Major-severe storm    20/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor storm           30/15/10
Major-severe storm    25/05/01