:Product: 0709RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Jul 09 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 898 (S06W83)
continues to be in decay. This region is due to rotate off the west
limb on 10 July.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. At approximately 09/2045 UTC, an
increase in total magnetic field, wind speed, temperature and
density was observed at the ACE spacecraft. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 10 and 11 July.  On 12 July,
unsettled to active conditions are expected with the possibility of
minor storm periods due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream moving into geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
Class M    05/05/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jul 075
Predicted   10 Jul-12 Jul  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        09 Jul 076
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul  005/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul  003/008-005/008-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/30
Minor storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/35
Minor storm           10/10/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/15