:Product: 0710RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Jul 10 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A sudden impulse
was observed at the boulder magnetometer at 09/2137 UTC with a 48 nT
deviation. This resulted in the only active period between 09/2100 -
2400 UTC. Activity was the result of CME activity from 06 July.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 11 July. On 12 July, a
recurrent coronal hole stream is expected to cause unsettled to
active conditions with minor storm periods possible. On 13 July,
conditions are expected to be mostly unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
Class M    05/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jul 073
Predicted   11 Jul-13 Jul  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        10 Jul 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul  005/008-015/020-007/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/20
Minor storm           05/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/35/20
Minor storm           10/25/10
Major-severe storm    01/15/01