:Product: 0715RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Jul 15 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 900 (S05E30) has
grown slightly since yesterday, but has remained unchanged in
magnetic complexity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.  There is a slight chance for a C-class flare
from Region 900.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours (16 July). 
Quiet conditions are expected for 17-18 July.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jul 070
Predicted   16 Jul-18 Jul  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        15 Jul 080
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul  010/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul  003/005-003/005-003/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01