:Product: 0720RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Jul 20 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  Region 900
(S04W38) continues to steadily decay.  A partial halo CME was first
seen in LASCO imagery at 20/1354Z.  EIT imagery showed a large
filament eruption and post-eruption loops in the southeastern
quadrant of the solar disk that began near 20/1236Z.  No new regions
were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels.  Due to the slow estimated velocity
of today's CME, the potential associated effects most likely will
occur just outside the forecast window.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jul 072
Predicted   21 Jul-23 Jul  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        20 Jul 080
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul  003/005-003/005-003/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01