:Product: 0721RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Jul 21 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 900 (S06W52)
produced two minor B-class flares during the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next two days (22-23 July).  Quiet to
unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods, are expected on
24 July, due to the arrival of the CME that occurred on 20 July.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jul 073
Predicted   22 Jul-24 Jul  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        21 Jul 080
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul  003/005-005/005-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/30
Minor storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/40
Minor storm           01/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05