:Product: 0722RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Jul 22 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  New Region 901 (N06E70)
produced several B-class flares.  Region 900 (S06W65) is currently
spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on 23 July.  Quiet to active levels are
expected on 24-25 July, with possible minor storm conditions at high
latitudes.  The elevated conditions are due to the arrival of a CME
from 20 July and a recurrent coronal hole moving into geoeffective
position.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jul 074
Predicted   23 Jul-25 Jul  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        22 Jul 080
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul  005/005-015/015-010/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/25
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/40/50
Minor storm           05/15/25
Major-severe storm    01/10/15