:Product: 0728RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Jul 28 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm conditions.
Major storm periods were observed between 28/0000 to 0300 UTC and
28/0300 to 0600 UTC. Heightened activity was due to the onset of a
coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE increased
early in the period from approximately 470 km/s to a maximum of 710
km/s around 28/0400 UTC. Wind speed has been slowly declining and
ended the summary period at approximately 570 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
possible on 29 July. On 30 July, quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected. On 31 July, a coronal hole high speed stream is expected
to move into geoeffective position causing unsettled to active
conditions with minor storm periods possible.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Jul 073
Predicted   29 Jul-31 Jul  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        28 Jul 078
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul  005/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul  020/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul  008/010-005/005-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/25
Minor storm           10/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05