:Product: 0731RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Jul 31 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled.  A solar sector boundary
crossing was observed at approximately 0300Z, 31 July.  Several
hours later solar wind speed increased to 550 - 600 km/s due to the
presence of a high speed coronal hole stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from unsettled to active conditions with minor
storm periods possible for the next 48 hours (01-02 August).  This
activity is due to a coronal hole high speed stream.  As the high
speed stream rotates past its geoeffective location, geomagnetic
activity should decline to quiet conditions for the last day of the
forecast period (03 August).
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Jul 072
Predicted   01 Aug-03 Aug  075/075/070
90 Day Mean        31 Jul 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug  015/020-008/010-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor storm           20/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/01