:Product: 0809RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Aug 09 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. New Region 904 (S14E76)
was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. An isolated active period
was observed at middle latitudes between 09/0900 - 1200 UTC. Solar
wind speed at ACE has decreased from approximately 580 km/s to 460
km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Aug 074
Predicted   10 Aug-12 Aug  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        09 Aug 076
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug  008/010-005/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01