:Product: 0810RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Aug 10 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 904 (S13E63) produced a
C4 flare at 10/1808 UTC. This region is a particularly hot and
complex region for this point in the solar cycle.  It continues to
be in a growth phase and has caused an increase in x-ray background
levels.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a possibility of M-class activity from Region 904.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
Class M    30/35/40
Class X    05/05/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Aug 080
Predicted   11 Aug-13 Aug  080/085/085
90 Day Mean        10 Aug 076
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug  005/005-005/005-003/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01